| DOI: | 10.7249/RR768
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| 报告号: | RR-768-RC
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| 报告题名: | Blinders, Blunders, and Wars: What America and China Can Learn |
| 作者: | David C. Gompert; Hans Binnendijk; Bonny Lin
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| 出版者: | RAND Corporation
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 发表日期: | 2014
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| 总页数: | 328
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| 国家: | 美国
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | International Diplomacy
; RAND-initiated
; Assumption Based Planning
; China
; United States
; Intelligence Community
; Decisionmaking
; Warfare and Military Operations
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| 英文摘要: | The history of wars caused by misjudgments, from Napoleon's invasion of Russia to America's invasion of Iraq, reveals that leaders relied on cognitive models, or simplified representations of their worlds, that were seriously at odds with objective reality. Blinders, Blunders, and Wars analyzes eight historical examples of strategic blunders regarding war and peace and four examples of decisions that turned out well, and then applies those lessons to the current Sino-American case. Leaders' egos, intuitions, unwarranted self-confidence, and aversion to information that contradicted their views prevented them from correcting their models. Yet advisors and bureaucracies can be inadequate safeguards and can, out of fawning or fear, reinforce leaders' flawed thinking. |
| URL: | http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR700/RR768/RAND_RR768.pdf
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 研究报告
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/27951
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
气候变化与战略
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| RAND_RR768.pdf（1807KB） | 研究报告 | -- | 开放获取 | | View
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| Recommended Citation: | |
David C. Gompert,Hans Binnendijk,Bonny Lin. Blinders, Blunders, and Wars: What America and China Can Learn. 2014-01-01.
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