| DOI: | 10.7249/RR644
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| 报告号: | RR-644-OSD
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| 报告题名: | Drivers of Long-Term Insecurity and Instability in Pakistan: Urbanization |
| 作者: | Jonah Blank; Christopher Clary; Brian Nichiporuk
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| 出版者: | RAND Corporation
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 发表日期: | 2014
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| 总页数: | 88
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| 国家: | 美国
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Migration
; Global Security
; Counterterrorism
; Politics and Government
; Pakistan
; Security Cooperation
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| 中文主题词: | 人口
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| 主题词: | POPULATION
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| 英文摘要: | Already one of the most urbanized nations in South Asia, Pakistan is projected to have a majority of its population living in cities within three decades. This demographic shift will alter Pakistan's politics and threaten its stability, but the political and security implications of Pakistan's urbanization remain underanalyzed. This report examines urbanization as a potential driver of long-term insecurity and instability, with particular attention to the cities of Karachi, Lahore, and Quetta. Drawing on demographic trends, election results, and survey data, the authors conclude that urbanization may fuel anti-American sentiment and help recruitment by transnational Islamist groups (but not necessarily Islamist political parties) in the short term. Urbanization is also likely to increase popular demand for political reform in Pakistan. In the near future, a Pakistani government more directly accountable to its electorate might be less willing to cooperate with the United States in unpopular security policies. In the long run, however, a Pakistani government more responsive to its citizens could be a better security partner for the United States. By spurring Pakistani policymakers to focus on provision of good governance and public services rather than on scapegoating external actors, political reform may eventually help reduce anti-American attitudes. |
| URL: | http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR600/RR644/RAND_RR644.pdf
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 研究报告
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/27970
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
气候变化与战略
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| RAND_RR644.pdf（633KB） | 研究报告 | -- | 开放获取 | | View
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Jonah Blank,Christopher Clary,Brian Nichiporuk. Drivers of Long-Term Insecurity and Instability in Pakistan: Urbanization. 2014-01-01.
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