| 报告题名: | Future narratives for two locations in the Barents region |
| 作者: | Oort, Bob van; Bjørkan, Maiken; Klyuchnikova, Elena M
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| 出版者: | CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 发表日期: | 2015
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| 国家: | 挪威
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Climate change
; socio-economic change
; impacts and adaptation
; Arctic, Barents region
; scenarios
; VDP::Social science: 200
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| 英文摘要: | What does the future look like from the perspective of municipalities in various locations in the Barents region? What climatic, social and environmental challenges might there be, and how might local people respond?
This report documents the results from two workshops held in Kirovsk and Bodø in 2015, addressing above questions. These workshops are part of a series of four workshops across the Barents region with the aim to build visions of different local futures in the Barents region under different climatic and socio-economic contexts. All workshops use the same methodology and research question, and connect local change to global scenarios.
A secondary aim of this report is to offer a description of and reflection on the methods employed as a basis for further development of the approach. The method follows a bottom-up, participatory scenario building approach, and is based on identifying local drivers of change which are of especial importance or uncertainty in the region. These locally important drivers are then evaluated in the form of narratives in context of four different global scenarios of alternative futures of societal development, known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The entire exercise, from driver identification to narrative development, involves a mixture of local actors together with researchers, using knowledge and understanding from both communities.
The resulting narratives highlight locally important issues different from pan-Arctic evaluations of future change. They also show that local development is perceived as closely linked to global processes, such as changes related to climate, but especially socio-economic factors such as demography, resource markets or politics. |
| URL: | https://brage.bibsys.no/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11250/2367371/CICERO%20report%202015-06web.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
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| 资源类型: | 研究报告
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/28931
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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| CICERO report 2015-06web.pdf（18660KB） | 研究报告 | -- | 开放获取 | | View
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Oort, Bob van,Bjørkan, Maiken,Klyuchnikova, Elena M. Future narratives for two locations in the Barents region. 2015-01-01.
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