| 报告题名: | Climate projections for local adaptation in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas |
| 作者: | Oort, Bob Eric Helmuth van
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| 出版者: | CICERO Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 发表日期: | 2015
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| 国家: | 挪威
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Downscaling
; Scenarios
; Himalayas
; Projections
; Climate
; Relevance
; Climate services
; Decision-makers
; Local adaptation
; 200
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| 中文主题词: | 降水
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| 主题词: | PRECIPITATION
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| 英文摘要: | This report is an output of the Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP). The aim of this report is to present downscaled climate scenarios in a relevant, understandable and illustrative manner for a diverse group of end-users and stakeholders, including other HICAP research components decision-makers at different levels.
This report is based on dynamically downscaled temperature and precipitation projections for 8 different domains in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas. It uses the HICAP model (the WRF model, driven by the NorESM GCM model) for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Comparing model results with local observations for a reference period (1996-2005, the output was corrected for various under- and overestimations. For each domain, projections for periods 1996-2005, 2010-2030, 2030-2050 and 2050-2080 are presented a) in figures relevant for local users and decision makers, b) in a simplified text summing up the projections, and briefly discussing them in relation to potential impacts.
This report provides highly relevant, locally specific results for the HICAP region, and relates these to geographical variations within each domain across the Himalayas. No other models and projections have been used in this report, and the HICAP model results should be compared with other sources of information for a final assessment of local climate change and impacts. The usability of the report extends beyond the HICAP project: the model-adjustment method, aimed at showing how to make projections realistic and relevant at the local level, the ease of the calculations and the guided interpretations of the figures and projections can serve as a guide to model use and presentations anywhere, provided the availability of a minimal amount of observations to compare and adjust larger scale model outputs to local climate observations for a certain reference period. |
| URL: | https://brage.bibsys.no/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11250/292942/CICERO%20report%20HICAP%20Climate%20projections%20-%20final.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
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| 资源类型: | 研究报告
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/29114
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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| File Name/ File Size |
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Version |
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License |
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| CICERO report HICAP Climate projections - final.pdf（20839KB） | 研究报告 | -- | 开放获取 | | View
Download
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Oort, Bob Eric Helmuth van. Climate projections for local adaptation in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas. 2015-01-01.
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