| DOI: | 10.2172/1082972
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| 报告号: | DOE ER64448
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| 报告题名: | High-Resolution Modeling to Assess Tropical Cyclone Activity in Future Climate Regimes |
| 作者: | Lackmann, Gary
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 发表日期: | 2013-06-10
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| 国家: | 美国
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | climate change
; tropical cyclone intensity and frequency
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| 中文主题词: | 碳
; 对流层顶
; 气旋
; 对流
; 热带气旋
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| 主题词: | CARBON
; TROPOPAUSE
; CYCLONES
; CONVECTION
; TROPICAL CYCLONES
|
| 英文摘要: | Applied research is proposed with the following objectives: (i) to determine the most likely level of tropical cyclone intensity and frequency in future climate regimes, (ii) to provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty in these predictions, and (iii) to improve understanding of the linkage between tropical cyclones and the planetary-scale circulation. Current mesoscale weather forecasting models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are capable of simulating the full intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) with realistic structures. However, in order to accurately represent both the primary and secondary circulations in these systems, model simulations must be configured with sufficient resolution to explicitly represent convection (omitting the convective parameterization scheme). Most previous numerical studies of TC activity at seasonal and longer time scales have not utilized such explicit convection (EC) model runs. Here, we propose to employ the moving nest capability of WRF to optimally represent TC activity on a seasonal scale using a downscaling approach. The statistical results of a suite of these high-resolution TC simulations will yield a realistic representation of TC intensity on a seasonal basis, while at the same time allowing analysis of the feedback that TCs exert on the larger-scale climate system. Experiments will be driven with analyzed lateral boundary conditions for several recent Atlantic seasons, spanning a range of activity levels and TC track patterns. Results of the ensemble of WRF simulations will then be compared to analyzed TC data in order to determine the extent to which this modeling setup can reproduce recent levels of TC activity. Next, the boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, tropopause height, and thermal/moisture profiles) from the recent seasons will be altered in a manner consistent with various future GCM/RCM scenarios, but that preserves the large-scale shear and incipient disturbance activity. This will allow (i) a direct comparison of future TC activity that could be expected for an active or inactive season in an altered climate regime, and (ii) a measure of the level of uncertainty and variability in TC activity resulting from different carbon emission scenarios. |
| URL: | http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1082972
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 研究报告
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/41115
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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Content Type |
Version |
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| 1082972.pdf（23KB） | 研究报告 | -- | 开放获取 | | View
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Lackmann, Gary. High-Resolution Modeling to Assess Tropical Cyclone Activity in Future Climate Regimes. 2013-01-01.
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