| DOI: | 10.2172/1097334
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| 报告号: | PNNL--22356
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| 报告题名: | Climate policy implications for agricultural water demand |
| 作者: | Chaturvedi, Vaibhav [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States)]; Hejazi, Mohamad I. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States)]; Edmonds, James A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 发表日期: | 2013-03-01
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| 总页数: | 29
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| 国家: | 美国
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 中文主题词: | 灌溉
; 碳
; 排放物
; 生物量
; 工业排放物
|
| 主题词: | IRRIGATION
; CARBON
; EMISSIONS
; BIOMASS
; INDUSTRIAL EMISSIONS
|
| 英文摘要: | Energy, water and land are scarce resources, critical to humans. Developments in each affect the availability and cost of the others, and consequently human prosperity. Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will inevitably exact dramatic changes on energy and land systems and in turn alter the character, magnitude and geographic distribution of human claims on water resources. We employ the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model to explore the interactions of energy, land and water systems in the context of alternative policies to limit climate change to three alternative levels: 2.5 Wm-2 (445 ppm CO2-e), 3.5 Wm-2 (535 ppm CO2-e) and 4.5 Wm-2 (645 ppm CO2-e). We explore the effects of two alternative land-use emissions mitigation policy optionsâone which taxes terrestrial carbon emissions equally with fossil fuel and industrial emissions, and an alternative which only taxes fossil fuel and industrial emissions but places no penalty on land-use change emissions. We find that increasing populations and economic growth could be anticipated to almost triple demand for water for agricultural systems across the century even in the absence of climate policy. In general policies to mitigate climate change increase agricultural demands for water still further, though the largest changes occur in the second half of the century, under both policy regimes. The two policies examined profoundly affected both the sources and magnitudes of the increase in irrigation water demands. The largest increases in agricultural irrigation water demand occurred in scenarios where only fossil fuel emissions were priced (but not land-use change emission) and were primarily driven by rapid expansion in bioenergy production. In these scenarios water demands were large relative to present-day total available water, calling into question whether it would be physically possible to produce the associated biomass energy. We explored the potential of improved water delivery and irrigation system efficiencies. These could potentially reduce demands substantially. However, overall demands remained high under our fossil-fuel-only tax policy. In contrast, when all carbon was priced, increases in agricultural water demands were smaller than under the fossil-fuel-only policy and were driven primarily by increased demands for water by non-biomass crops such as rice. Finally we estimate the geospatial pattern of water demands and find that regions such as China, India and other countries in south and east Asia might be expected to experience greatest increases in water demands. |
| URL: | http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1097334
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 研究报告
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/41242
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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| 1097334.pdf（2524KB） | 研究报告 | -- | 开放获取 | | View
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Chaturvedi, Vaibhav [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD ,Hejazi, Mohamad I. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD ,Edmonds, James A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD. Climate policy implications for agricultural water demand. 2013-01-01.
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