| DOI: | 10.2172/1225814
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| 报告号: | DOE-UAF--0001898-1
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| 报告题名: | Characterization of the Dynamics of Climate Systems and Identification of Missing Mechanisms Impacting the Long Term Predictive Capabilities of Global Climate Models Utilizing Dynamical Systems Approaches to the Analysis of Observed and Modeled Climate |
| 作者: | Bhatt, Uma S.; Wackerbauer, Renate; Polyakov, Igor V.; Newman, David E.; Sanchez, Raul E.
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 发表日期: | 2015-11-13
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| 总页数: | 7
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| 国家: | 美国
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Climate
; Global Climate Models
; Climate indices
; Hurst Exponent
; Reyni entropy
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| 中文主题词: | 海平面气压
; 海冰
; 扩散
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| 主题词: | SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
; SEA ICE
; DIFFUSION
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| 英文摘要: | The goal of this research was to apply fractional and non-linear analysis techniques in order to develop a more complete characterization of climate change and variability for the oceanic, sea ice and atmospheric components of the Earth System. This research applied two measures of dynamical characteristics of time series, the R/S method of calculating the Hurst exponent and Renyi entropy, to observational and modeled climate data in order to evaluate how well climate models capture the long-term dynamics evident in observations. Fractional diffusion analysis was applied to ARGO ocean buoy data to quantify ocean transport. Self organized maps were applied to North Pacific sea level pressure and analyzed in ways to improve seasonal predictability for Alaska fire weather. This body of research shows that these methods can be used to evaluate climate models and shed light on climate mechanisms (i.e., understanding why something happens). With further research, these methods show promise for improving seasonal to longer time scale forecasts of climate. |
| URL: | http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1225814
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 研究报告
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/41711
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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| 1225814.pdf（295KB） | 研究报告 | -- | 开放获取 | | View
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Bhatt, Uma S.,Wackerbauer, Renate,Polyakov, Igor V.,et al. Characterization of the Dynamics of Climate Systems and Identification of Missing Mechanisms Impacting the Long Term Predictive Capabilities of Global Climate Models Utilizing Dynamical Systems Approaches to the Analysis of Observed and Modeled Climate. 2015-01-01.
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