| DOI: | 10.2172/1168985
|
| 报告号: | Final Report: DOE-Princeton-SC0005189
|
| 报告题名: | The Mechanisms of Natural Variability and its Interaction with Anthropogenic Climate Change Final Report |
| 作者: | Vallis, Geoffrey K.
|
| 出版年: | 2015
|
| 发表日期: | 2015-02-01
|
| 国家: | 美国
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| 英文关键词: | Anthropogenic Climate Change, Natural Variability, Climate Sensitivity,
|
| 中文主题词: | 碳
; 气溶胶
; 对流层顶
; 地表温度
|
| 主题词: | CARBON
; AEROSOLS
; TROPOPAUSE
; SURFACE TEMPERATURE
|
| 英文摘要: | The project had two main components. The first concerns estimating the climate sensitivity in the presence of forcing uncertainty and natural variability. Climate sensitivity is the increase in the average surface temperature for a given increase in greenhouse gases, for example a doubling of carbon dioxide. We have provided new, probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity using a simple climate model an the observed warming in the 20th century, in conjunction with ideas in data assimilation and parameter estimation developed in the engineering community. The estimates combine the uncertainty in the anthropogenic aerosols with the uncertainty arising because of natural variability. The second component concerns how the atmospheric circulation itself might change with anthropogenic global warming. We have shown that GCMs robustly predict an increase in the length scale of eddies, and we have also explored the dynamical mechanisms whereby there might be a shift in the latitude of the jet stream associated with anthropogenic warming. Such shifts in the jet might cause large changes in regional climate, potentially larger than the globally-averaged signal itself. We have also shown that the tropopause robustly increases in height with global warming, and that the Hadley Cell expands, and that the expansion of the Hadley Cell is correlated with the polewards movement of the mid-latitude jet. |
| URL: | http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1168985
|
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 研究报告
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/41966
|
| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
|
| File Name/ File Size |
Content Type |
Version |
Access |
License |
|
|---|
| 1168985.pdf（449KB） | 研究报告 | -- | 开放获取 | | View
Download
|
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Vallis, Geoffrey K.. The Mechanisms of Natural Variability and its Interaction with Anthropogenic Climate Change Final Report. 2015-01-01.
|
|
|