| DOI: | 10.2172/1168586
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| 报告号: | DOE-UCLA--6694
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| 报告题名: | Decadal Prediction and Stochastic Simulation of Hydroclimate Over Monsoonal Asia |
| 作者: | Ghil, Michael; Robertson, Andrew W.; Cook, Edward R.; DâArrigo, Rosanne; Lall, Upmanu; Smyth, Padhraic J.
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 发表日期: | 2015-01-18
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| 总页数: | 4
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| 国家: | 美国
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Centennial proxy records, Data-based closure models, Empirical model reduction (EMR), Indus River discharge, Low-frequency variability (LFV), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Singular-spectrum analysis (SSA), Stochast
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| 中文主题词: | 干旱
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| 主题词: | DROUGHT
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| 英文摘要: | We developed further our advanced methods of time series analysis and empirical model reduction (EMR) and applied them to climatic time series relevant to hydroclimate over Monsoonal Asia. The EMR methodology was both generalized further and laid on a rigorous mathematical basis via multilayered stochastic models (MSMs). We identified easily testable conditions that imply the existence of a global random attractor for MSMs and allow for non-polynomial predictors. This existence, in turn, guarantees the numerical stability of the MSMs so obtained. We showed that, in the presence of low-frequency variability (LFV), EMR prediction can be improved further by including information from selected times in the systemâs past. This prediction method, dubbed Past-Noise Forecasting (PNF), was successfully applied to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Our time series analysis and forecasting methods, based on singular-spectrum analysis (SSA) and its enhancements, were applied to several multi-centennial proxy records provided by the Lamont team. These included the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1300â2005 from the Monsoonal Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), and a 300-member ensemble of pseudo-reconstructions of Indus River discharge for 1702â2005. The latter was shown to exhibit a robust 27-yr low-frequency mode, which helped multi-decadal retroactive forecasts with no look-ahead over this 300-year interval. |
| URL: | http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1168586
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 研究报告
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/41986
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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| 1168586.pdf（187KB） | 研究报告 | -- | 开放获取 | | View
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Ghil, Michael,Robertson, Andrew W.,Cook, Edward R.,et al. Decadal Prediction and Stochastic Simulation of Hydroclimate Over Monsoonal Asia. 2015-01-01.
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