| 英文摘要: | A new climate agreement won't solve climate change, but it should nudge the world onto a lower-emissions path. Research must drive deeper transformations by translating proposed solutions into workable action. Thousands of negotiators are set to descend on Paris for the latest round of international climate change talks at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21st Conference of the Parties. A new deal will not solve climate change, but it will help the world to plot a course to a lower-carbon future. Time is running out for policymakers to ensure that countries accelerate their efforts in the right direction. In Paris, media scrutiny will be at its most intense since Copenhagen in 2009, which is often framed as a missed opportunity. Six years later, delegates are determined not to leave empty-handed. The host nation's diplomatic machinery has gone into overdrive to ensure the groundwork for the conference is more robust than on previous occasions. This time, countries will be arriving with pledges already made, and expectations sufficiently checked. Analysis by the UNFCCC shows that countries' current promises are insufficient to meet the agreed goal of preventing global temperatures rising more than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels1. The combined impact of countries' intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) suggests that temperatures will rise in the range of 2.2 to 3.4 °C (ref. 2) —a considerable advance on current policies, which put the world on track for around 3.6 °C of warming. But the UNFCCC acknowledges that the INDCs represent a “floor” for countries' ambition, rather than a major departure from business as usual3. Politicians are at least moving in the right direction, as are emissions trajectories, albeit gradually. A report by the United Nations Environment Programme shows that the gap is slowly closing between current policies and what countries need to do to avoid the worst impacts of climate change4. It also highlights the social and economic benefits of implementing climate policies, beyond just reducing emissions.
UNFCCC
- Synthesis report on the aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined contributions FCCC/CP/2015/7 (UNFCCC, 2015).
- Climate Action Tracker (accessed 9 November 2015); http://climateactiontracker.org/
- Global Response to Climate Change Keeps Door Open to 2 Degree C Temperature Limit UNFCCC Newsroom (30 October 2015).
- The Emissions Gap Report 2015 (UNEP, 2015).
- Meinshausen, M. et al. Nature Clim. Change 5, 1098–1106 (2015).
- Thomson, A. 2015 May Just Be Hottest Year on Record. Scientific American (20 August 2015).
- Pal, J. & Eltahir, E. Nature Clim. Change http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2833 (2015).
- Barnhart, K. et al. Nature Clim. Change http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2848 (2015).
- Challinor, A. J. et al. Nature Clim. Change 4, 287–291 (2015).
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