DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0877.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85028514062
论文题名: Long-range persistence in global surface temperatures explained by linear multibox energy balance models
作者: Fredriksen H.-B. ; Rypdal M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 18 起始页码: 7157
结束页码: 7168
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Budget control
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Energy balance
; Energy transfer
; Impulse response
; Oceanography
; Stochastic systems
; Structural analysis
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Climate sensitivity
; Climate variability
; Radiation budget
; Single-column model
; Surface temperatures
; Stochastic models
英文摘要: The temporal fluctuations in global mean surface temperature are an example of a geophysical quantity that can be described using the notions of long-range persistence and scale invariance/scaling, but this description has suffered from lack of a generally accepted physical explanation. Processes with these statistical signatures can arise from nonlinear effects, for instance, through cascade-like energy transfer in turbulent fluids, but they can also be produced by linear models with scale-invariant impulse-response functions. This paper demonstrates that, on time scales from months to centuries, the scale-invariant impulse-response function of global surface temperature can be explained by simple linear multibox energy balance models. This explanation describes both the scale invariance of the internal variability and the lack of a characteristic time scale of the response to external forcings. With parameters estimated from observational data, the climate response is approximately scaling in these models, even if the response function is not chosen to be scaling a priori. It is also demonstrated that the differences in scaling exponents for temperatures over land and for sea surface temperatures can be reproduced by a version of the multibox energy balance model with two distinct surface boxes. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48730
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Tromsø-The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Fredriksen H.-B.,Rypdal M.. Long-range persistence in global surface temperatures explained by linear multibox energy balance models[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(18)