globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0491.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85025648382
论文题名:
Uncertainties in future projections of summer droughts and heat waves over the contiguous United States
作者: Herrera-Estrada J.E.; Sheffield J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期:16
起始页码: 6225
结束页码: 6246
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture ; Climate change ; Climatology ; Drought ; Evapotranspiration ; Water resources ; Atmosphere-land interactions ; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ; Electricity generation ; Extreme events ; Historical performance ; Near surface air temperature ; North America ; North american land data assimilation systems ; Climate models
英文摘要: Droughts and heat waves have important impacts on multiple sectors including water resources, agriculture, electricity generation, and public health, so it is important to understand how they will be affected by climate change. However, there is large uncertainty in the projected changes of these extreme events from climate models. In this study, historical biases in models are compared against their future projections to understand and attempt to constrain these uncertainties. Biases in precipitation, near-surface air temperature, evapotranspiration, and a land-atmospheric coupling metric are calculated for 24 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) against 2 models from phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) as reference for 1979-2005. These biases are highly correlated across variables, with some models being hotter and drier and others wetter and cooler. Models that overestimate summer precipitation project larger increases in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and land-atmospheric coupling over important agricultural regions by the end of the twenty-first century (2070-99) under RCP8.5, although the percentage variance explained is low. Changes in the characteristics of droughts and heat waves are calculated and linked to historical biases in precipitation and temperature. A method to constrain uncertainty by ranking models based on historical performance is discussed but the rankings differ widely depending on the variable considered. Despite the large uncertainty that remains in the magnitude of the changes, there is consensus among models that droughts and heat waves will increase in multiple regions in the United States by the end of the twenty-first century unless climate mitigation actions are taken. © 2017 American Meteorological Society.
资助项目: NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ; NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48753
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Herrera-Estrada J.E.,Sheffield J.. Uncertainties in future projections of summer droughts and heat waves over the contiguous United States[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(16)
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