DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0807.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85025625875
论文题名: Storylines of atmospheric circulation change for European regional climate impact assessment
作者: Zappa G. ; Shepherd T.G.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 16 起始页码: 6561
结束页码: 6577
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Electric power system interconnection
; Global warming
; Meteorology
; Regression analysis
; Uncertainty analysis
; Vortex flow
; Atmospheric circulation
; Atmospheric circulation changes
; Europe
; Extratropics
; Mediterranean precipitation
; Polar amplifications
; Regional climate changes
; Regional climate projections
; Climate change
英文摘要: There is increasing interest in understanding the regional impacts of different global warming targets. However, several regional climate impacts depend on the atmospheric circulation, whose response to climate change remains substantially uncertain and not interpretable in a probabilistic sense in multimodel ensemble projections. To account for these uncertainties, a novel approach where regional climate change is analyzed as a function of carbon emissions conditional on plausible storylines of atmospheric circulation change is here presented and applied to the CMIP5 models' future projections. The different storylines are determined based on the response in three remote drivers of regional circulation: the tropical and polar amplification of global warming and changes in stratospheric vortex strength. As an illustration of this approach, it is shown that the severity of the projected wintertime Mediterranean precipitation decline and central European windiness increase strongly depends on the storyline of circulation change. For a given magnitude of global warming, the highest impact storyline for these aspects of European climate is found for a high tropical amplification and a strengthening of the vortex. The difference in the precipitation and wind responses between the storylines is substantial and equivalent to the contribution from several degrees of global warming. Improving the understanding of the remote driver responses is thus needed to better bound the projected regional impacts in the European sector. The value of these storylines to represent the uncertainty in regional climate projections and to inform the selection of CMIP5 models in regional climate impact studies is discussed. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48805
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Zappa G.,Shepherd T.G.. Storylines of atmospheric circulation change for European regional climate impact assessment[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(16)