DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0578.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85025662510
论文题名: Attribution of forced decadal climate change in coupled and uncoupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments
作者: Dong B. ; Sutton R.T. ; Shaffrey L. ; Klingaman N.P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 16 起始页码: 6203
结束页码: 6223
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Earth atmosphere
; Oceanography
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Air sea interactions
; Atmosphere-ocean interactions
; Climate variability
; Decadal variability
; Numerical analysis/modeling
; Climate models
英文摘要: There is still no consensus about the best methodology for attributing observed changes in climate or climate events. One widely used approach relies on experiments in which the time periods of interest are simulated using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), with and without estimated anthropogenic influences. A potential limitation of such experiments is the lack of explicit atmosphere-ocean coupling; therefore a key question is whether the attribution statements derived from such studies are in fact robust. In this research the authors have carried out climate model experiments to test attribution conclusions in a situation where the answer is known-a so-called perfect model approach. The study involves comparing attribution conclusions for decadal changes derived from experiments with a coupled climate model (specifically an AGCM coupled to an ocean mixed-layer model) with conclusions derived from parallel experiments with the same AGCM forced by SSTs derived from the coupled model simulations. Results indicate that attribution conclusions for surface air temperature changes derived from AGCM experiments are generally robust and not sensitive to air-sea coupling. However, changes in seasonal mean and extreme precipitations, and circulation in some regions, show large sensitivity to air-sea coupling, notably in the summer monsoons over East Asia and Australia. Comparison with observed changes indicates that the coupled simulations generally agree better with observations. These results demonstrate that the AGCM-based attribution method has limitations and may lead to erroneous attribution conclusions in some regions for local circulation and mean and extreme precipitation. The coupled mixed-layer model used in this study offers an alternative and, in some respects, superior tool for attribution studies. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48811
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Dong B.,Sutton R.T.,Shaffrey L.,et al. Attribution of forced decadal climate change in coupled and uncoupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(16)