DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0631.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020129076
论文题名: The modulating influence of Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures on Australian region seasonal tropical cyclone counts
作者: Ramsay H. ; Richman M.B. ; Leslie L.M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 13 起始页码: 4843
结束页码: 4856
语种: 英语
英文摘要: The Australian region seasonal tropical cyclone count (TCC) maintained a robust statistical relationship with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with skillful forecasts of above (below) average TCC during La Niña (El Niño) years from 1969 until about 1998, weakening thereafter. The current study identifies an additional climate driver that mitigates the loss of predictive skill for Australian TCC after about 1998. It is found that the seasonal Australian TCC is strongly modulated by a southwest-to-northeast-oriented dipole in Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), referred to here as the transverse Indian Ocean dipole (TIOD). The TIOD emerges as the leading mode of detrended Indian Ocean SSTAs in the Southern Hemisphere during late winter and spring. Active (inactive) TC seasons are linked to positive (negative) TIOD phases, most notably during August-October immediately preceding the TC season, when SSTAs northwest of Australia, in the northeast pole of the TIOD, are positive (negative). To provide a physical interpretation of the TIOD-TCC relationship, 850-hPa zonal winds, 850-hPa relative vorticity, and 600-hPa relative humidity are composited for positive and negative TIOD phases, providing results consistent with observed TCC modulation. Correlations between ENSO and TCC weaken from 1998 onward, becoming statistically insignificant, whereas the TIOD-TCC correlation remains statistically significant until 2003. Overall, TIOD outperforms Niño-4 SSTA as a TCC predictor (46% skill increase since about 1998), when used individually or with Niño-4. The combination of TIOD and Niño 4 provide a skill increase (up to 33%) over climatology, demonstrating reliably accurate seasonal predictions of Australian region TCC. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48848
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ramsay H.,Richman M.B.,Leslie L.M.. The modulating influence of Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures on Australian region seasonal tropical cyclone counts[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(13)