DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0634.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85021123691
论文题名: Potential predictability during a Madden-Julian oscillation event
作者: Jones C. ; Dudhia J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 14 起始页码: 5345
结束页码: 5360
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climatology
; Errors
; Forecasting
; Kinetics
; Tropics
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; North America
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Numerical weather prediction/forecasting
; Orographic precipitation
; Root mean square errors
; Tropical variability
; Weather research and forecasting models
; Weather forecasting
英文摘要: The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is an important source of predictability. The boreal 2004/05 winter is used as a case study to conduct predictability experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. That winter season was characterized by an MJO event, weak El Niño, strong North Atlantic Oscillation, and extremely wet conditions over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The issues investigated are as follows: 1) growth of forecast errors in the tropics relative to the extratropics, 2) propagation of forecast errors from the tropics to the extratropics, 3) forecast error growth on spatial scales associated with MJO and non-MJO variability, and 4) the relative importance of MJO and non-MJO tropical variability on predictability of precipitation over CONUS. Root-mean-square errors in forecasts of normalized eddy kinetic energy (NEKE) (200 hPa) show that errors in initial conditions in the tropics grow faster than in the extratropics. Potential predictability extends out to about 4 days in the tropics and 9 days in the extratropics. Forecast errors in the tropics quickly propagate to the extratropics, as demonstrated by experiments in which initial conditions are only perturbed in the tropics. Forecast errors in NEKE (200 hPa) on scales related to the MJO grow slower than in non-MJO variability over localized areas in the tropics and short lead times. Potential predictability of precipitation extends to 1-5 days over most of CONUS but to longer leads (7-12 days) over regions with orographic precipitation in California. Errors in initial conditions on small scales relative to the MJO quickly grow, propagate to the extratropics, and degrade forecast skill of precipitation. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48856
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Geography, Earth Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Jones C.,Dudhia J.. Potential predictability during a Madden-Julian oscillation event[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(14)