DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0554.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020121646
论文题名: The relationship between tropical cyclones at genesis and their maximum attained intensity
作者: Ditchek S.D. ; Nelsona T.C. ; Rosenmayer M. ; Corbosiero K.L.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 13 起始页码: 4897
结束页码: 4913
语种: 英语
英文摘要: Despite recent improvements made to tropical cyclone intensity predictions, this study investigates a different approach than those attempted thus far. Here, the overall environmental setup at genesis is evaluated to determine whether it predisposes a storm to reach its future maximum intensity. Variables retrieved from ERA-Interim are used to generate storm-centered composites at the time of genesis for Atlantic basin, main development region TCs from 1979-2015. Composites are stratified by their maximum attained intensity: tropical depressions (GTD), tropical storms (GTS), minor hurricanes (GMN), or major hurricanes (GMJ). A multiple-parameter linear regression is then used to associate the eventual attained intensity of tropical cyclone to the obtained variables at genesis. The regression has an adjusted r2 of 0.39, which indicates that a statistical relationship is present. Regression coefficients, along with the spatial distribution of variables in the storm-centered composites, indicate that storms that reach higher intensities are associated at genesis with stronger, more compact, low-level vortices, better-defined outflow jets, a more compact region of high midlevel relative humidity, and higher atmospheric water vapor content. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48857
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States; Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ditchek S.D.,Nelsona T.C.,Rosenmayer M.,et al. The relationship between tropical cyclones at genesis and their maximum attained intensity[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(13)