| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0711.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85021164008
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| 论文题名: | SynthETC: A statistical model for severe winter storm hazard on Eastern North America |
| 作者: | Hall T.; Booth J.F.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2017
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| 卷: | 30, 期:14 | | 起始页码: | 5329
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| 结束页码: | 5343
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric pressure
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Nickel
; Oceanography
; Risk assessment
; Stochastic systems
; Storms
; Climate variability
; Eastern north america
; Extratropical cyclones
; Great Lakes regions
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Southern oscillation
; Statistical modeling
; Teleconnections
; Stochastic models
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| 英文摘要: | The authors develop, evaluate, and apply SynthETC, a statistical-stochastic model of winter extratropical cyclones (ETCs) over eastern North America. SynthETC simulates the life cycle of ETCs from formation to termination, and it can be used to estimate the probability of extreme ETC events beyond the historical record. Two modes of climate variability are used as independent covariates: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Niño-3.4 index and the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). SynthETC is used to estimate the annual occurrence rate over sites in eastern North America of intense ETCpassage in differentENSO and NAO states. Positive NAO is associated with increased rates over the North Atlantic, while negative NAO is associated with decreased rates over the North Atlantic and increased rates over northern Quebec. Positive ENSO is associated with decreased rates over the North Atlantic, Ontario, and the Canadian maritime, while negative ENSO is associated with increased rates over those regions, as well as the Great Lakes region. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48859
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; City College of the City University of New York, New York, NY, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Hall T.,Booth J.F.. SynthETC: A statistical model for severe winter storm hazard on Eastern North America[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(14)
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