DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0553.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020083492
论文题名: Projected Significant Increase in the Number of Extreme Extratropical Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere
作者: Chang E.K.M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 13 起始页码: 4915
结束页码: 4935
语种: 英语
英文摘要: Extratropical cyclones are responsible for much of the extreme weather in the midlatitudes; thus, how these cyclones may change under increasing greenhouse gas forcing is of much general interest. Previous studies have suggested a poleward shift in the location of these cyclones, but how the intensity may change remains uncertain, especially in terms of maximum wind speed. In this study, projected changes in extreme cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere, based on 26 models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), are presented. Multiple definitions of extreme cyclones have been examined, including intensity exceeding constant thresholds of sea level pressure perturbations, 850-hPa vorticity, and 850-hPa winds, as well as variable thresholds corresponding to a top-5 or top-1 cyclone per winter month in these three parameters and the near-surface winds. Results presented show that CMIP5 models project a significant increase in the frequency of extreme cyclones in all four seasons regardless of the definition, with over 88% of the models projecting an increase. Spatial patterns of increase are also consistent, with the largest increase projected between 45° and 60°S, extending from the South Atlantic across the south Indian Ocean into the Pacific. The projected increases in cyclone statistics are consistent with those in Eulerian statistics, such as sea level pressure (SLP) variance. However, while the projected increase in SLP variance can be linked to increase in the mean available potential energy (MAPE), the increases in cyclone statistics are not well correlated with those in MAPE. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48860
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, State University of New York, Stony Brook, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Chang E.K.M.. Projected Significant Increase in the Number of Extreme Extratropical Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(13)