DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0189.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85019142753
论文题名: Attribution of the observed spring snowpack decline in British Columbia to anthropogenic climate change
作者: Najafi M.R. ; Zwiers F. ; Gillett N.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 11 起始页码: 4113
结束页码: 4130
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Earth atmosphere
; Greenhouse effect
; Greenhouse gases
; Pattern recognition
; Rivers
; Snow
; Surveys
; Watersheds
; Climate variability
; General circulation model
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Pattern detection
; Regional effects
; Trends
; Climate models
英文摘要: A detection and attribution analysis on the multidecadal trend in snow water equivalent (SWE) has been conducted in four river basins located in British Columbia (BC). Monthly output from a suite of 10 general circulation models (GCMs) that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is used, including 40 climate simulations with anthropogenic and natural forcing combined (ALL), 40 simulations with natural forcing alone (NAT), and approximately 4200 yr of preindustrial control simulations (CTL). This output was downscaled to 1/16° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model (VIC). Observed (manual snow survey) and VIC-reconstructed SWE, which exhibit declines across BC, are projected onto the multimodel ensemble means of the VIC-simulated SWE based on the responses to different forcings using an optimal fingerprinting approach. Results of the detection and attribution analysis shows that these declines are attributable to the anthropogenic forcing, which is dominated by the effect of increases in greenhouse gas concentration, and that they are not caused by natural forcing due to volcanic activity and solar variability combined. Anthropogenic influence is detected in three of the four basins (Fraser, Columbia, and Campbell Rivers) based on the VIC-reconstructed SWE, and in all basins based on the manual snow survey records. The simulations underestimate the observed snowpack trends in the Columbia River basin, which has the highest mean elevation. Attribution is supported by the detection of human influence on the cold-season temperatures that drive the snowpack reductions. These results are robust to the use of different observed datasets and to the treatment of low-frequency variability effects. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48876
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Western University, London, ON, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Najafi M.R.,Zwiers F.,Gillett N.. Attribution of the observed spring snowpack decline in British Columbia to anthropogenic climate change[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(11)