DOI: 10.5194/cp-11-533-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84925683007
论文题名: Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age-depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model
作者: Werner J.P. ; Tingley M.P.
刊名: Climate of the Past
ISSN: 18149324
出版年: 2015
卷: 11, 期: 3 起始页码: 533
结束页码: 545
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: age determination
; Bayesian analysis
; covariance analysis
; Holocene
; ice core
; numerical model
; probability
; proxy climate record
; reconstruction
; tree ring
; uncertainty analysis
; varve
英文摘要: Reconstructions of the late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting, such as measurements of tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments. Considerable advances could be achieved if time-uncertain proxies were able to be included within these multiproxy reconstructions, and if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors. Current approaches for accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each one of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty - in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space-time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Here, we demonstrate how Bayesian hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time-uncertain proxies. Critically, although a priori all age models are given equal probability of being correct, the probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments show that updating the age model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the resulting reconstructions, as compared with the current de facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the spatial region of the time-uncertain proxy. This approach can readily be generalized to non-layer-counted proxies, such as those derived from marine sediments. © Author(s) 2015. 资助项目: NSF, National Stroke Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49158
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Werner J.P.,Tingley M.P.. Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age-depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model[J]. Climate of the Past,2015-01-01,11(3)