DOI: 10.5194/cp-11-425-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84924674864
论文题名: Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium-Part 3: Practical considerations, relaxed assumptions, and using tree-ring data to address the amplitude of solar forcing
作者: Moberg A. ; Sundberg R. ; Grudd H. ; Hind A.
刊名: Climate of the Past
ISSN: 18149324
出版年: 2015
卷: 11, 期: 3 起始页码: 425
结束页码: 448
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: autocorrelation
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; dating method
; paleoclimate
; proxy climate record
; seasonal variation
; simulation
; solar radiation
; statistical analysis
; tree ring
英文摘要: A statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by comparison with climate observations from instrumental and proxy data (part 1 in this series) is improved by the relaxation of two assumptions. This allows autocorrelation in the statistical model for simulated internal climate variability and enables direct comparison of two alternative forced simulations to test whether one fits the observations significantly better than the other. The extended framework is applied to a set of simulations driven with forcings for the pre-industrial period 1000-1849 CE and 15 tree-ring-based temperature proxy series. Simulations run with only one external forcing (land use, volcanic, small-amplitude solar, or large-amplitude solar) do not significantly capture the variability in the tree-ring data-although the simulation with volcanic forcing does so for some experiment settings. When all forcings are combined (using either the small-or large-amplitude solar forcing), including also orbital, greenhouse-gas and non-volcanic aerosol forcing, and additionally used to produce small simulation ensembles starting from slightly different initial ocean conditions, the resulting simulations are highly capable of capturing some observed variability. Nevertheless, for some choices in the experiment design, they are not significantly closer to the observations than when unforced simulations are used, due to highly variable results between regions. It is also not possible to tell whether the small-amplitude or large-amplitude solar forcing causes the multiple-forcing simulations to be closer to the reconstructed temperature variability. Proxy data from more regions and of more types, or representing larger regions and complementary seasons, are apparently needed for more conclusive results from model-data comparisons in the last millennium. © 2015 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49164
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Moberg A.,Sundberg R.,Grudd H.,et al. Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium-Part 3: Practical considerations, relaxed assumptions, and using tree-ring data to address the amplitude of solar forcing[J]. Climate of the Past,2015-01-01,11(3)