DOI: 10.5194/cp-10-2081-2014
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84914156262
论文题名: CREST (Climate REconstruction SofTware): A probability density function (PDF)-based quantitative climate reconstruction method
作者: Chevalier M. ; Cheddadi R. ; Chase B.M.
刊名: Climate of the Past
ISSN: 18149324
出版年: 2014
卷: 10, 期: 6 起始页码: 2081
结束页码: 2098
语种: 英语
英文摘要: Several methods currently exist to quantitatively reconstruct palaeoclimatic variables from fossil botanical data. Of these, probability density function (PDF)-based methods have proven valuable as they can be applied to a wide range of plant assemblages. Most commonly applied to fossil pollen data, their performance, however, can be limited by the taxonomic resolution of the pollen data, as many species may belong to a given pollen type. Consequently, the climate information associated with different species cannot always be precisely identified, resulting in less-accurate reconstructions. This can become particularly problematic in regions of high biodiversity. In this paper, we propose a novel PDF-based method that takes into account the different climatic requirements of each species constituting the broader pollen type. PDFs are fitted in two successive steps, with parametric PDFs fitted first for each species and then a combination of those individual species PDFs into a broader single PDF to represent the pollen type as a unit. A climate value for the pollen assemblage is estimated from the likelihood function obtained after the multiplication of the pollen-type PDFs, with each being weighted according to its pollen percentage. To test its performance, we have applied the method to southern Africa as a regional case study and reconstructed a suite of climatic variables (e.g. winter and summer temperature and precipitation, mean annual aridity, rainfall seasonality). The reconstructions are shown to be accurate for both temperature and precipitation. Predictable exceptions were areas that experience conditions at the extremes of the regional climatic spectra. Importantly, the accuracy of the reconstructed values is independent of the vegetation type where the method is applied or the number of species used. The method used in this study is publicly available in a software package entitled CREST (Climate REconstruction SofTware) and will provide the opportunity to reconstruct quantitative estimates of climatic variables even in areas with high geographical and botanical diversity. © 2014 Author(s). 资助项目: ERC, European Research Council
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49203
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Chevalier M.,Cheddadi R.,Chase B.M.. CREST (Climate REconstruction SofTware): A probability density function (PDF)-based quantitative climate reconstruction method[J]. Climate of the Past,2014-01-01,10(6)