DOI: 10.5194/cp-10-1489-2014
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84929142272
论文题名: Statistical downscaling of a climate simulation of the last glacial cycle: Temperature and precipitation over Northern Europe
作者: Korhonen N. ; Venäläinen A. ; Seppä H. ; Järvinen H.
刊名: Climate of the Past
ISSN: 18149324
出版年: 2014
卷: 10, 期: 4 起始页码: 1489
结束页码: 1500
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: downscaling
; glacial-interglacial cycle
; Last Glacial
; paleoclimate
; paleotemperature
; precipitation (climatology)
; reconstruction
; surface temperature
; Europe
英文摘要: Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) have proven to be able to simulate the large-scale features of glacial-interglacial climate evolution. For many climatic applications the spatial resolution of the EMICs' output is, however, too coarse, and downscaling methods are needed. In this study we introduce a way to use generalized additive models (GAMs) for downscaling the large-scale output of an EMIC in very different climatological conditions ranging from glacial periods to current relatively warm climates. GAMs are regression models in which a combination of explanatory variables is related to the response through a sum of spline functions. We calibrated the GAMs using observations of the recent past climate and the results of short time-slice simulations of glacial climate performed by the relatively high-resolution general circulation model CCSM (Community Climate System Model) and the regional climate model RCA3 (Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric climate model). As explanatory variables we used the output of a simulation by the CLIMBER-2 (CLIMate and BiosphERe model 2) EMIC of the last glacial cycle, coupled with the SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets) ice sheet model, i.e. the large-scale temperature and precipitation data of CLIMBER-2, and the elevation, distance to ice sheet, slope direction and slope angle from SICOPOLIS. The fitted GAMs were able to explain more than 96% of the temperature response with a correlation of >0.98 and more than 59% of the precipitation response with a correlation of >0.72. The first comparison with two pollen-based reconstructions of temperature for Northern Europe showed that CLIMBER-2 data downscaled by GAMs corresponded better with the reconstructions than did the bilinearly interpolated CLIMBER-2 surface temperature. © 2014 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49236
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Korhonen N.,Venäläinen A.,Seppä H.,et al. Statistical downscaling of a climate simulation of the last glacial cycle: Temperature and precipitation over Northern Europe[J]. Climate of the Past,2014-01-01,10(4)