| 英文摘要: | Direct experience of global warming is expected to increase the number of people who accept that it is real and human-caused. A study now shows that people's perceptions about abnormal temperatures mostly match actual measurements but do not affect climate change beliefs. Climate change is expected to increase weather anomalies, including warming temperatures1. Some analysts expect that as such events escalate and climate change becomes increasingly apparent, more people will come to accept that anthropogenic global warming is occurring2. However, evidence from research on the effects of climate and weather on beliefs about climate change is mixed. Writing in Nature Climate Change, McCright and colleagues3 find evidence that in the USA, weather abnormalities may lead to support for climate change adaptation, but not for mitigation, because many people remain unwilling to attribute abnormal weather to global warming despite experiencing its effects. More specifically, people do perceive abnormal temperatures but do not attribute them to human-induced global warming. In contrast, individual pre-existing beliefs about global warming, perceived scientific agreement, and political orientation impact both perceptions of actual warming and whether or not experienced warming is attributed to climate change. This study combines the growing body of literature on actual weather and its impacts on global warming beliefs with work that looks at the influence of political orientation on belief that climate change is occurring. Research on the impact of weather is mixed, with some studies finding weather does not affect beliefs about climate change4 and other studies finding that weather matters generally5 or matters in specific contexts6. However, research consistently finds that not only does political orientation matter,5 but that it matters over time7 and influences a wide range of beliefs including perceived scientific agreement about climate change8.
DIZ MÜNCHEN GMBH / ALAMY
Sunbathing in December 2011 in the Hofgarten, Munich.
- National Research Council Climate Change: Evidence, Impacts, and Choices (National Academies Press, 2012); http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=14673
- Howe, P. D., Markowitz, E. M., Lee, T., Ko, C. & Leiserowitz, A. Nature Clim. Change 3, 352–356 (2013).
- McCright, A. M., Dunlap, R. E. & Xiao, C. Nature Clim. Change 4, 1077–1081 (2014).
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- Shao, W., Keim, B. D., Garand, J. C. & Hamilton, L. C. Weather Clim. Soc. 6, 119–134 (2014).
- Hamilton, L. & Stampone, M. Weather Clim. Soc. 5, 112–119 (2013).
- McCright, A. M. & Dunlap, R. E. Sociol. Quart. 52, 155–194 (2011).
- McCright, A. M., Dunlap, R. E. & Xiao, C. Climatic Change 119, 511–518 (2013).
- Hansen, J., Sato, M. & Ruedy, R. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, E2415–E2423 (2012).
- Marquart-Pyatt, S. T. et al. Environment 53, 38–42 (2011)
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Affiliations
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Jennifer Givens is in the Department of Sociology, Washington State University, PO Box 644020, Pullman, Washington 99164-4020, USA
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