DOI: 10.5194/cp-10-825-2014
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84899492563
论文题名: A probabilistic model of chronological errors in layer-counted climate proxies: Applications to annually banded coral archives
作者: Comboul M. ; Emile-Geay J. ; Evans M.N. ; Mirnateghi N. ; Cobb K.M. ; Thompson D.M.
刊名: Climate of the Past
ISSN: 18149324
出版年: 2014
卷: 10, 期: 2 起始页码: 825
结束页码: 841
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: age determination
; annual variation
; climate variation
; coral
; dendrochronology
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; error analysis
; geochronology
; growth rate
; paleoclimate
; probability
; proxy climate record
; spatiotemporal analysis
英文摘要: The ability to precisely date climate proxies is central to the reconstruction of past climate variations. To a degree, all climate proxies are affected by age uncertainties, which are seldom quantified. This article proposes a probabilistic age model for proxies based on layer-counted chronologies, and explores its use for annually banded coral archives. The model considers both missing and doubly counted growth increments (represented as independent processes), accommodates various assumptions about error rates, and allows one to quantify the impact of chronological uncertainties on different diagnostics of variability. In the case of a single coral record, we find that time uncertainties primarily affect high-frequency signals but also significantly bias the estimate of decadal signals. We further explore tuning to an independent, tree-ring-based chronology as a way to identify an optimal age model. A synthetic pseudocoral network is used as testing ground to quantify uncertainties in the estimation of spatiotemporal patterns of variability. Even for small error rates, the amplitude of multidecadal variability is systematically overestimated at the expense of interannual variability (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, in this case), artificially flattening its spectrum at periods longer than 10 years. An optimization approach to correct chronological errors in coherent multivariate records is presented and validated in idealized cases, though it is found difficult to apply in practice due to the large number of solutions. We close with a discussion of possible extensions of this model and connections to existing strategies for modeling age uncertainties. ©Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49276
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Comboul M.,Emile-Geay J.,Evans M.N.,et al. A probabilistic model of chronological errors in layer-counted climate proxies: Applications to annually banded coral archives[J]. Climate of the Past,2014-01-01,10(2)