DOI: 10.5194/cp-9-191-2013
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84873824668
论文题名: Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: Results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project
作者: Haywood A.M. ; Hill D.J. ; Dolan A.M. ; Otto-Bliesner B.L. ; Bragg F. ; Chan W.-L. ; Chandler M.A. ; Contoux C. ; Dowsett H.J. ; Jost A. ; Kamae Y. ; Lohmann G. ; Lunt D.J. ; Abe-Ouchi A. ; Pickering S.J. ; Ramstein G. ; Rosenbloom N.A. ; Salzmann U. ; Sohl L. ; Stepanek C. ; Ueda H. ; Yan Q. ; Zhang Z.
刊名: Climate of the Past
ISSN: 18149324
出版年: 2013
卷: 9, 期: 1 起始页码: 191
结束页码: 209
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: boundary condition
; carbon dioxide
; climate modeling
; comparative study
; latitude
; orbital forcing
; paleoclimate
; paleoenvironment
; paleogeography
; Pliocene
; proxy climate record
; reconstruction
; sensitivity analysis
; trace gas
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data/model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5. © Author(s) 2013. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49483
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Haywood A.M.,Hill D.J.,Dolan A.M.,et al. Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: Results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project[J]. Climate of the Past,2013-01-01,9(1)