| 英文摘要: | Many international river basins are suffering from climate-driven impacts, with implications for national security. Now, research highlights the need to analyse shifting river boundaries to better understand potential socio-political threats. Annual and seasonal water variability is already affecting the flow of international river basins. Yet the effects of climate change are likely to intensify water variability beyond the bounds of previously observed runoff events1. Such physical effects may have socio-political consequences, especially in international river basins where states must share a river or lake. Writing in WIREs Climate Change, Grainger and Conway2 suggest a research approach that contributes to a growing literature3, 4 examining how climatic change could potentially affect water relations among countries. Specifically, Grainger and Conway focus on those rivers that make up an entire international boundary, or portions of it, and how physical changes to these rivers (and consequently borders) in the context of floods and droughts affect the likelihood of conflict.
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The Linyanti River forms the boundary between Botswana and Namibia.
- IPCC Summary for Policymakers in Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (eds Pachauri, K. & Reisinger, A.) 1–104 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
- Grainger, S. & Conway, D. WIREs Clim. Change http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wcc.306 (2014).
- De Stefano, L. et al. J. Peace Res. 49, 193–209 (2012).
- Tir, J. & Stinnett, D. J. Peace Res. 49, 211–225 (2012).
- Buhaug, H., Gleditsch, N. P. & Theisen, O. M. Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict (Social Development Department, World Bank, 2008).
- National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (CNA Corporation, 2007).
- Salehyan, I. J. Peace Res. 45, 315–326 (2008).
- Drieschova, A., Giordano, M. & Fischhendler, I. Glob. Environ. Change 18, 285–295 (2008).
- Dinar, S., Katz, D., De Stefano, L. & Blankespoor, B. Polit. Geogr. (in the press).
- Intelligence Community Assessment Global Water Security (Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2012).
- Brochmann, M. & Gleditsch, N. P. Polit. Geogr. 31, 519–527 (2012).
- Dinar, S. International Water Treaties: Negotiation and Cooperation along Transboundary Rivers (Routledge, 2008).
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Affiliations
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Shlomi Dinar is in the School of International and Public Affairs, Florida International University, SIPA 525, 11200 SW 8th Street, Miami, Florida 33174, USA
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