DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0710.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85019108565
论文题名: Representation of arctic moist intrusions in CMIP5 models and implications for winter climate biases
作者: Woods C. ; Caballero R. ; Svensson G.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 11 起始页码: 4083
结束页码: 4102
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Budget control
; Moisture
; Sea ice
; Arctic
; Atmospheric circulation
; Coupled models
; General circulation model
; Model errors
; Moisture/moisture budgets
; Climate models
英文摘要: This paper examines the wintertime northward moisture flux at 70°N from 1981-2005 in 31 of the CMIP5 models compared with the ERA-Interim reanalysis product. The models' total zonally integrated northward moisture flux is found to agree reasonably well with the reanalysis, but with large compensating regional biases. Specifically, the models systematically underpredict the moisture flux in the Atlantic sector and overpredict it in the Pacific sector. The biases are predominantly due to misrepresentation of extreme moisture flux events, which are known to exert a significant control on Arctic climate. Biases in these high-intensity fluxes are almost entirely contributed by biases in the meridional velocity, suggesting a link with biases in storm-track activity at lower latitudes. The extent to which the deficit of moisture intrusions in the Atlantic sector and excess in the Pacific sector may account for biases in the climate of the respective sectors is assessed. Biases in the frequency of moisture intrusions explain roughly 17% of surface temperature and 24% of surface downward longwave radiation biases in the Atlantic sector, and about 14% and 16% of the gradient in these respective biases between the two sectors. The predicted bias gradients, while small in amplitude, are very highly correlated with the true bias gradients in the models, suggesting that the temperature bias directly induced by misrepresented intrusion statistics may be strongly amplified by sea ice feedback. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49647
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Woods C.,Caballero R.,Svensson G.. Representation of arctic moist intrusions in CMIP5 models and implications for winter climate biases[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(11)