DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0475.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020018646
论文题名: Seasonal prediction skill of northern extratropical surface temperature driven by the stratosphere
作者: Jia L. ; Yang X. ; Vecchi G. ; Gudgel R. ; Delworth T. ; Fueglistaler S. ; Lin P. ; Scaife A.A. ; Underwood S. ; Lin S.-J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 12 起始页码: 4463
结束页码: 4475
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Sea level
; Temperature
; Troposphere
; Upper atmosphere
; Arctic Oscillation
; Climate prediction
; Climate variability
; Seasonal forecasting
; Stratospheric circulations
; Climate models
; air temperature
; Arctic Oscillation
; atmospheric circulation
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; climate variation
; extratropical environment
; Northern Hemisphere
; seasonality
; stratosphere
; surface temperature
英文摘要: This study explores the role of the stratosphere as a source of seasonal predictability of surface climate over Northern Hemisphere extratropics both in the observations and climate model predictions. A suite of numerical experiments, including climate simulations and retrospective forecasts, are set up to isolate the role of the stratosphere in seasonal predictive skill of extratropical near-surface land temperature. It is shown that most of the lead-0-month spring predictive skill of land temperature over extratropics, particularly over northern Eurasia, stems from stratospheric initialization. It is further revealed that this predictive skill of extratropical land temperature arises from skillful prediction of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The dynamical connection between the stratosphere and troposphere is also demonstrated by the significant correlation between the stratospheric polar vortex and sea level pressure anomalies, as well as the migration of the stratospheric zonal wind anomalies to the lower troposphere. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49651
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Princeton, NJ, United States; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, United States; Innovim, LLC, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Jia L.,Yang X.,Vecchi G.,et al. Seasonal prediction skill of northern extratropical surface temperature driven by the stratosphere[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(12)