DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0567.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85019010765
论文题名: Predictability of week-3-4 average temperature and precipitation over the contiguous United States
作者: DelSole T. ; Trenary L. ; Tippett M.K. ; Pegion K.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 10 起始页码: 3499
结束页码: 3512
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Forecasting
; Mean square error
; Climate prediction
; Forecast verification/skill
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; Operational forecasts
; Precipitation anomalies
; Statistical characteristics
; Statistical significance
; Statistical techniques
; Climatology
英文摘要: This paper demonstrates that an operational forecast model can skillfully predict week-3-4 averages of temperature and precipitation over the contiguous United States. This skill is demonstrated at the gridpoint level (about 1° × 1°) by decomposing temperature and precipitation anomalies in terms of an orthogonal set of patterns that can be ordered by a measure of length scale and then showing that many of the resulting components are predictable and can be predicted in observations with statistically significant skill. The statistical significance of predictability and skill are assessed using a permutation test that accounts for serial correlation. Skill is detected based on correlation measures but not based on mean square error measures, indicating that an amplitude correction is necessary for skill. The statistical characteristics of predictability are further clarified by finding linear combinations of components that maximize predictability. The forecast model analyzed here is version 2 of the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2), and the variables considered are temperature and precipitation over the contiguous United States during January and July. A 4-day lagged ensemble, comprising 16 ensemble members, is used. The most predictable components of winter temperature and precipitation are related to ENSO, and other predictable components of winter precipitation are shown to be related to the Madden-Julian oscillation. These results establish a scientific basis for making week-3-4 weather and climate predictions. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
; NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49699
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: George Mason University, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA, United States; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jidda, Saudi Arabia
Recommended Citation:
DelSole T.,Trenary L.,Tippett M.K.,et al. Predictability of week-3-4 average temperature and precipitation over the contiguous United States[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(10)