DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0206.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85017186488
论文题名: Subseasonal prediction of extreme precipitation over Asia: Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation perspective
作者: Lee S.-S. ; Moon J.-Y. ; Wang B. ; Kim H.-J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 8 起始页码: 2849
结束页码: 2865
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Forecasting
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Probability
; Rain
; Tropical engineering
; Bivariate correlations
; Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation
; Extreme events
; Extreme precipitation events
; Intraseasonal variability
; Monitoring and forecast
; Precipitation anomalies
; Probability forecasts/models/distribution
; Probability distributions
英文摘要: The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is one of the most prominent modes in the tropical climate system. For better subseasonal prediction of extreme precipitation the relationship between BSISO activity and extreme precipitation events (days with daily precipitation exceeding the local 90th percentile) over Asia is investigated, especially the dependence of extreme precipitation occurrence on BSISO precipitation anomaly pattern (phase) and intensity (amplitude) in each month. At a given area and month, the probability of extreme precipitation changes from less than 10% to over 40%-50% according to BSISO phases, and it tends to be high when BSISO amplitude is large. The extreme precipitation probability estimated by BSISO activity is generally higher over ocean than over land. Over some land regions, however, occurrence of extreme precipitation is notably modulated by BSISO activity. In May, the extreme precipitation probability over southeastern China can reach about 30%-40% when BSISO precipitation anomaly arrives over the region. Similarly, in September the extreme precipitation probability over western China can reach 40%-50% when BSISO precipitation anomaly arrives there. The BSISO activity provides useful information in narrowing down the area and timing of high probability of extreme precipitation occurrence. Using real-time BSISO monitoring and forecast data provided by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center, it is shown that 1) the best model (ECMWF) can predict the leading BSISO modes about 20 days ahead with bivariate correlation skills higher than 0.5 except in May, and 2) the empirical probability distributions of extreme precipitation that are based on BSISO activity can be captured by the BSISO forecasts for lead times longer than 2 weeks. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: MEST, Ministry of Education, Science and Technology
; NRF, National Research Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49709
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Atmosphere-Ocean Research Center, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center (APCC), Busan, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Lee S.-S.,Moon J.-Y.,Wang B.,et al. Subseasonal prediction of extreme precipitation over Asia: Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation perspective[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(8)