DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0326.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85015863669
论文题名: Analysis of the southward wind shift of ENSO in CMIP5 models
作者: Abellán E. ; McGregor S. ; England M.H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 7 起始页码: 2415
结束页码: 2435
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climatology
; Linear regression
; Locks (fasteners)
; Nickel
; Oceanography
; Regression analysis
; Surface waters
; Wind stress
; Coupled climate model
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; ENSO
; Model errors
; Multiple linear regression analysis
; Sea surface temperature anomalies
; Seasonal cycle
; Seasonal phase locking
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; error analysis
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea surface temperature
; seasonal variation
; temperature anomaly
; temperature gradient
; wind stress
; zonal wind
英文摘要: During the mature phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events there is a southward shift of anomalous zonal winds (SWS), which has been suggested to play a role in the seasonal phase locking of ENSO. Motivated by the fact that coupled climate models tend to underestimate this feature, this study examines the representation of the SWS in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It is found that most models successfully reproduce the observed SWS, although the magnitude of the zonal wind stress anomaly is underestimated. Several significant differences between the models with and without the SWS are identified including biases in the magnitude and spatial distribution of precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during ENSO. Multiple-linear regression analysis suggests that the climatological meridional SST gradient as well as anomalous ENSO-driven convective activity over the northwest Pacific both might play a role in controlling the SWS. While the models that capture the SWS also simulate many more strong El Niño and La Niña events peaking at the correct time of year, the overall seasonal synchronization is still underestimated in these models. This is attributed to underestimated changes in warm water volume (WWV) during moderate El Niño events so that these events display relatively poor seasonal synchronization. Thus, while the SWS is an important metric, it is ultimately the magnitude and zonal extent of the wind changes that accompany this SWS that drive the changes in WWV and prime the system for termination. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: ARC, Australian Research Council
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49724
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Abellán E.,McGregor S.,England M.H.. Analysis of the southward wind shift of ENSO in CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(7)