globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0453.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85015940571
论文题名:
Historical and projected eastern Pacific and Intra-Americas Sea TD-wave activity in a selection of IPCC AR5 models
作者: Serra Y.L.; Geil K.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期:7
起始页码: 2269
结束页码: 2294
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature ; Climatology ; Hurricanes ; Moisture ; Oceanography ; Rain ; Shear flow ; Storms ; Surface waters ; Tropics ; Complex relationships ; Environmental factors ; Intra Americas sea ; Model errors ; Sea surface temperature (SST) ; Synoptic climatology ; Tropical depressions ; Tropical variability ; Climate models ; atmospheric dynamics ; atmospheric wave ; climate modeling ; climatology ; error analysis ; storm track ; synoptic meteorology ; tropical cyclone
英文摘要: The tracks of westward-propagating synoptic disturbances across the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) and far-eastern Pacific, known as easterly waves or tropical depression (TD) waves, are an important feature of the region's climate. They are associated with heavy rainfall events, seed the majority of tropical cyclones, and contribute to the mean rainfall across the region. This study examines the ability of current climate models (CMIP5) to simulate TD-wave activity and associated environmental factors across the IAS and far-eastern Pacific as compared to reanalysis. Model projections for the future are then compared with the historical model experiment to investigate the southward shift in CMIP5 track density and the environmental factors that may contribute to it. While historical biases in TD-wave track-density patterns are well correlated with model biases in sea surface temperature and midlevel moisture, the projected southward shift of the TD track density by the end of the twenty-first century in CMIP5 models is best correlated with changes in deep wind shear and midlevel moisture. In addition, the genesis potential index is found to be a good indicator of both present and future regions of high TD-wave track density for the models in this region. This last result may be useful for understanding the more complex relationship between tropical cyclones and this index in models found in other studies. © 2017 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49725
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States

Recommended Citation:
Serra Y.L.,Geil K.. Historical and projected eastern Pacific and Intra-Americas Sea TD-wave activity in a selection of IPCC AR5 models[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(7)
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