globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0544.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85015897625
论文题名:
Twenty-first-century changes in U.S. regional heavy precipitation frequency based on resolved atmospheric patterns
作者: Gao X.; Schlosser C.A.; O'Gorman P.A.; Monier E.; Entekhabi D.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期:7
起始页码: 2501
结束页码: 2521
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric humidity ; Floods ; Meteorological instruments ; NASA ; Wind effects ; Atmospheric circulation ; Extreme events ; Flood event ; General circulation model ; Model evaluation/performance ; North America ; Climate models ; atmospheric circulation ; atmospheric general circulation model ; climate modeling ; extreme event ; flood ; precipitation (climatology) ; twenty first century ; United States
英文摘要: Precipitation-gauge observations and atmospheric reanalysis are combined to develop an analogue method for detecting heavy precipitation events based on prevailing large-scale atmospheric conditions. Combinations of atmospheric variables for circulation (geopotential height and wind vector) and moisture (surface specific humidity, column and up to 500-hPa precipitable water) are examined to construct analogue schemes for the winter [December-February (DJF)] of the "Pacific Coast California" (PCCA) region and the summer [June-August (JJA)] of the Midwestern United States (MWST). The detection diagnostics of analogue schemes are calibrated with 1979-2005 and validated with 2006-14 NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). All analogue schemes are found to significantly improve upon MERRA precipitation in characterizing the occurrence and interannual variations of observed heavy precipitation events in the MWST. When evaluated with the late twentieth-century climate model simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), all analogue schemes produce model medians of heavy precipitation frequency that are more consistent with observations and have smaller intermodel discrepancies than model-based precipitation. Under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the CMIP5-based analogue schemes produce trends in heavy precipitation occurrence through the twenty-first century that are consistent with model-based precipitation, but with smaller intermodel disparity. The median trends in heavy precipitation frequency are positive for DJF over PCCA but are slightly negative for JJA over MWST. Overall, the analyses highlight the potential of the analogue as a powerful diagnostic tool for model deficiencies and its complementarity to an evaluation of heavy precipitation frequency based on model precipitation alone. © 2017 American Meteorological Society.
资助项目: NSF, Norsk Sykepleierforbund
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49729
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Gao X.,Schlosser C.A.,O'Gorman P.A.,et al. Twenty-first-century changes in U.S. regional heavy precipitation frequency based on resolved atmospheric patterns[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(7)
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