DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0323.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85008692946
论文题名: Predictability and decadal variability of the North Atlantic Ocean state evaluated from a realistic ocean model
作者: Sévellec F. ; Fedorov A.V.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 2 起始页码: 477
结束页码: 498
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Errors
; Excited states
; Lagrange multipliers
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Climate prediction
; Climate variability
; General circulation model
; Meridional overturning circulations
; Ocean circulation
; Ocean dynamics
; Oceanography
; air-sea interaction
; climate prediction
; climate variation
; decadal variation
; general circulation model
; meridional circulation
; modeling
; overturn
; salinity
; sea surface temperature
; water temperature
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: This study investigates the excitation of decadal variability and predictability of the ocean climate state in the North Atlantic. Specifically, initial linear optimal perturbations (LOPs) in temperature and salinity that vary with depth, longitude, and latitude are computed, and the maximum impact on the ocean of these perturbations is evaluated in a realistic ocean general circulation model. The computations of the LOPs involve a maximization procedure based on Lagrange multipliers in a nonautonomous context. To assess the impact of these perturbations four different measures of the North Atlantic Ocean state are used: meridional volume and heat transports (MVT and MHT) and spatially averaged sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat content (OHC). It is shown that these metrics are dramatically different with regard to predictability. Whereas OHC and SST can be efficiently modified only by basin-scale anomalies, MVT and MHT are also strongly affected by smaller-scale perturbations. This suggests that instantaneous or even annual-mean values of MVT and MHT are less predictable than SST and OHC. Only when averaged over several decades do the former two metrics have predictability comparable to the latter two, which highlights the need for long-term observations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in order to accumulate climatically relevant data. This study also suggests that initial errors in ocean temperature of a few millikelvins, encompassing both the upper and deep ocean, can lead to ~0.1-K errors in the predictions of North Atlantic sea surface temperature on interannual time scales. This transient error growth peaks for SST and OHC after about 6 and 10 years, respectively, implying a potential predictability barrier. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49757
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States
Recommended Citation:
Sévellec F.,Fedorov A.V.. Predictability and decadal variability of the North Atlantic Ocean state evaluated from a realistic ocean model[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(2)