DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0412.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85008690083
论文题名: Attribution of extreme events in Arctic Sea ice extent
作者: Kirchmeier-Young M.C. ; Zwiers F.W. ; Gillett N.P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 2 起始页码: 553
结束页码: 571
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Sea ice
; Statistics
; Anthropogenic effects
; Anthropogenic influence
; Arctic sea ice
; Detection and attributions
; Extreme events
; Human influences
; Model response
; Single models
; Ice
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; extreme event
; sea ice
; statistical analysis
; Arctic Ocean
英文摘要: Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) has decreased over recent decades, with record-setting minimum events in 2007 and again in 2012. A question of interest across many disciplines concerns the extent to which such extreme events can be attributed to anthropogenic influences. First, a detection and attribution analysis is performed for trends in SIE anomalies over the observed period. The main objective of this study is an event attribution analysis for extreme minimum events in Arctic SIE. Although focus is placed on the 2012 event, the results are generalized to extreme events of other magnitudes, including both past and potential future extremes. Several ensembles of model responses are used, including two single-model large ensembles. Using several different metrics to define the events in question, it is shown that an extreme SIE minimum of the magnitude seen in 2012 is consistent with a scenario including anthropogenic influence and is extremely unlikely in a scenario excluding anthropogenic influence. Hence, the 2012 Arctic sea ice minimum provides a counterexample to the often-quoted idea that individual extreme events cannot be attributed to human influence. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSERC, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49776
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Kirchmeier-Young M.C.,Zwiers F.W.,Gillett N.P.. Attribution of extreme events in Arctic Sea ice extent[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(2)