DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0142.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85008187224
论文题名: Constraints on Southern Australian rainfall change based on atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 simulations
作者: Grose M.R. ; Risbey J.S. ; Moise A.F. ; Osbrough S. ; Heady C. ; Wilson L. ; Erwin T.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 1 起始页码: 225
结束页码: 242
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Climatology
; Fighter aircraft
; Meteorology
; Rain
; Storms
; Atmospheric circulation
; Atmospheric circulation changes
; Australia
; Australian rainfall
; Blocking
; Eastern Australia
; Rainfall trends
; Storm environments
; Climate change
英文摘要: Atmospheric circulation change is likely to be the dominant driver of multidecadal rainfall trends in the midlatitudes with climate change this century. This study examines circulation features relevant to southern Australian rainfall in January and July and explores emergent constraints suggested by the intermodel spread and their impact on the resulting rainfall projection in the CMIP5 ensemble. The authors find relationships between models' bias and projected change for four features in July, each with suggestions for constraining forced change. The features are the strength of the subtropical jet over Australia, the frequency of blocked days in eastern Australia, the longitude of the peak blocking frequency east of Australia, and the latitude of the storm track within the polar front branch of the split jet. Rejecting models where the bias suggests either the direction or magnitude of change in the features is implausible produces a constraint on the projected rainfall reduction for southern Australia. For RCP8.5 by the end of the century the constrained projections are for a reduction of at least 5% in July (with models showing increase or little change being rejected). Rejecting these models in the January projections, with the assumption the bias affects the entire simulation, leads to a rejection of wet and dry outliers. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49785
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Bureau of Meteorology Research and Development, Docklands, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Grose M.R.,Risbey J.S.,Moise A.F.,et al. Constraints on Southern Australian rainfall change based on atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 simulations[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(1)