DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0473.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85014520368
论文题名: The exceptionally warm winter of 2015/16 in Alaska
作者: Walsh J.E. ; Bieniek P.A. ; Brettschneider B. ; Euskirchen E.S. ; Lader R. ; Thoman R.L.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 6 起始页码: 2069
结束页码: 2088
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Advection
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Gas emissions
; Greenhouse gases
; Meteorology
; Pattern recognition
; Sea ice
; Sea level
; Snow
; Atmospheric circulation
; Climate model simulations
; Geo-potential heights
; Interannual variability
; Intraseasonal variability
; Ocean surface temperature
; Pattern detection
; Sea level pressure
; Climate models
; advection
; annual variation
; atmospheric circulation
; climate modeling
; detection method
; seasonal variation
; winter
; Alaska
; United States
英文摘要: Alaska experienced record-setting warmth during the 2015/16 cold season (October-April). Statewide average temperatures exceeded the period-of-record mean by more than 4°C over the 7-month cold season and by more than 6°C over the 4-month late-winter period, January-April. The record warmth raises two questions: 1) Why was Alaska so warm during the 2015/16 cold season? 2) At what point in the future might this warmth become typical if greenhouse warming continues? On the basis of circulation analogs computed from sea level pressure and 850-hPa geopotential height fields, the atmospheric circulation explains less than half of the anomalous warmth. The warming signal forced by greenhouse gases in climate models accounts for about 1°C of the anomalous warmth. A factor that is consistent with the seasonal and spatial patterns of the warmth is the anomalous surface state. The surface anomalies include 1) above-normal ocean surface temperatures and below-normal sea ice coverage in the surrounding seas from which air advects into Alaska and 2) the deficient snowpack over Alaska itself. The location of the maximum of anomalous warmth over Alaska and the late-winter-early-spring increase of the anomalous warmth unexplained by the atmospheric circulation implicates snow cover and its albedo effect, which is supported by observational measurements in the boreal forest and tundra biomes. Climate model simulations indicate that warmth of this magnitude will become the norm by the 2050s if greenhouse gas emissions follow their present scenario. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49842
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AL, United States; Alaska Climate Science Center, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AL, United States; Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AL, United States; NOAA/National Weather Service, Fairbanks, AL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Walsh J.E.,Bieniek P.A.,Brettschneider B.,et al. The exceptionally warm winter of 2015/16 in Alaska[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(6)