DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0496.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85012249743
论文题名: Response of the North Pacific tropical cyclone climatology to global warming: Application of dynamical downscaling to CMIP5 models
作者: Zhang L. ; Karnauskas K.B. ; Donnelly J.P. ; Emanuel K.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 4 起始页码: 1233
结束页码: 1243
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Hurricanes
; Oceanography
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Dynamical downscaling
; Free troposphere
; Future projections
; Global climate model
; Saturation deficit
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Tropical cyclone
; Vertical wind shear
; Density of gases
; climate modeling
; climatology
; CMIP
; downscaling
; global warming
; tropical cyclone
; wind shear
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: A downscaling approach is applied to future projection simulations from four CMIP5 global climate models to investigate the response of the tropical cyclone (TC) climatology over the North Pacific basin to global warming. Under the influence of the anthropogenic rise in greenhouse gases, TC-track density, power dissipation, and TC genesis exhibit robust increasing trends over the North Pacific, especially over the central subtropical Pacific region. The increase in North Pacific TCs is primarily manifested as increases in the intense and relatively weak TCs. Examination of storm duration also reveals that TCs over the North Pacific have longer lifetimes under global warming. Through a genesis potential index, the mechanistic contributions of various physical climate factors to the simulated change in TC genesis are explored. More frequent TC genesis under global warming is mostly attributable to the smaller vertical wind shear and greater potential intensity (primarily due to higher sea surface temperature). In contrast, the effect of the saturation deficit of the free troposphere tends to suppress TC genesis, and the change in large-scale vorticity plays a negligible role. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: DOE, U.S. Department of Energy
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49843
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States; Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zhang L.,Karnauskas K.B.,Donnelly J.P.,et al. Response of the North Pacific tropical cyclone climatology to global warming: Application of dynamical downscaling to CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(4)