DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0077.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85008187581
论文题名: An independent assessment of anthropogenic attribution statements for recent extreme temperature and rainfall events
作者: Angélil O. ; Stone D. ; Wehner M. ; Paciorek C.J. ; Krishnan H. ; Collins W.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 1 起始页码: 5
结束页码: 16
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Uncertainty analysis
; Weather information services
; American meteorological societies
; Anthropogenic effects
; Anthropogenic emissions
; Extreme events
; Extreme precipitation events
; Extreme temperature events
; Extreme weather events
; Methodological frameworks
; Climate models
英文摘要: The annual "State of the Climate" report, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), has included a supplement since 2011 composed of brief analyses of the human influence on recent major extreme weather events. There are now several dozen extreme weather events examined in these supplements, but these studies have all differed in their data sources as well as their approaches to defining the events, analyzing the events, and the consideration of the role of anthropogenic emissions. This study reexamines most of these events using a single analytical approach and a single set of climate model and observational data sources. In response to recent studies recommending the importance of using multiple methods for extreme weather event attribution, results are compared from these analyses to those reported in the BAMS supplements collectively, with the aim of characterizing the degree to which the lack of a common methodological framework may or may not influence overall conclusions. Results are broadly similar to those reported earlier for extreme temperature events but disagree for a number of extreme precipitation events. Based on this, it is advised that the lack of comprehensive uncertainty analysis in recent extreme weather attribution studies is important and should be considered when interpreting results, but as yet it has not introduced a systematic bias across these studies. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49845
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Angélil O.,Stone D.,Wehner M.,et al. An independent assessment of anthropogenic attribution statements for recent extreme temperature and rainfall events[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(1)