DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0255.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85008177663
论文题名: Climate change and hurricane-like extratropical cyclones: Projections for North Atlantic polar lows and medicanes based on CMIP5 models
作者: Romero R. ; Emanuel K.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 1 起始页码: 279
结束页码: 299
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Hurricanes
; Risk assessment
; Storms
; Atlantic Ocean
; Central Mediterranean
; Deterministic methods
; Extratropical cyclones
; Individual models
; Mediterranean sea
; Storm intensity
; Western Mediterranean
; Climate change
英文摘要: A novel statistical-deterministic method is applied to generate thousands of synthetic tracks of North Atlantic (NA) polar lows and Mediterranean hurricanes ("medicanes"); these synthetic storms are compatible with the climates simulated by 30 CMIP5 models in both historical and RCP8.5 simulations for a recent (1986-2005) and a future (2081-2100) period, respectively. Present-to-future multimodel mean changes in storm risk are analyzed, with special attention to robust patterns (in terms of consensus among individual models) and privileging in each case the subset of models exhibiting the highest agreement with the results yielded by two reanalyses. A reduction of about 10%-15% in the overall frequency of NA polar lows that would uniformly affect the full spectrum of storm intensities is expected. In addition, a very robust regional redistribution of cases is obtained, namely a tendency to shift part of the polar low activity from the south Greenland-Icelandic sector toward the Nordic seas closer to Scandinavia. In contrast, the future change in the number of medicanes is unclear (on average the total frequency of storms does not vary), but a profound reshaping of the spectrum of lifetime maximum winds is found; the results project a higher number of moderate and violent medicanes at the expense of weak storms. Spatially, the method projects an increased occurrence of medicanes in the western Mediterranean and Black Sea that is balanced by a reduction of storm tracks in contiguous areas, particularly in the central Mediterranean; however, future extreme events (winds > 60 kt; 1 kt = 0.51 m s-1) become more probable in all Mediterranean subbasins. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49846
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Departament de Física, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Palma de Mallorca, Spain; Department of Atmospheric Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Romero R.,Emanuel K.. Climate change and hurricane-like extratropical cyclones: Projections for North Atlantic polar lows and medicanes based on CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(1)