DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0496.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85015859139
论文题名: Global influence of tropical Pacific variability with implications for global warming slowdown
作者: Wang C.-Y. ; Xie S.-P. ; Kosaka Y. ; Liu Q. ; Zheng X.-T.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 7 起始页码: 2679
结束页码: 2695
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Global warming
; Oceanography
; Regression analysis
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Time measurement
; Troposphere
; Decadal variability
; Global mean surface temperature
; Interannual time scale
; Interannual variability
; Model evaluation/performance
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Surface air temperatures
; Tropospheric temperature
; Tropics
; air temperature
; annual variation
; climate change
; decadal variation
; global warming
; sea surface temperature
; troposphere
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: The impact of internal tropical Pacific variability on global mean surface temperature (GMST) is quantified using a multimodel ensemble. A tropical Pacific index (TPI) is defined to track tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability. The simulated GMST is highly correlated with TPI on the interannual time scale but this correlation weakens on the decadal time scale. The time-scale dependency is such that the GMST regression equation derived from the observations, which are dominated by interannual variability, would underestimate the magnitude of decadal GMST response to tropical Pacific variability. The surface air temperature response to tropical Pacific variability is strong in the tropics but weakens in the extratropics. The regression coefficient of GMST against TPI shows considerable intermodel variations, primarily because of differences in high latitudes. The results have important implications for the planned intercomparison of pacemaker experiments that force Pacific variability to follow the observed evolution. The model dependency of the GMST regression suggests that in pacemaker experiments-model performance in simulating the recent "slowdown" in global warming-will vary substantially among models. It also highlights the need to develop observational constraints and to quantify the TPI effect on the decadal variability of GMST. Compared to GMST, the correlation between global mean tropospheric temperature and TPI is high on both interannual and decadal time scales because of a common structure in the tropical tropospheric temperature response that is upward amplified and meridionally broad. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: DOE, U.S. Department of Energy
; NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49859
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Cooperation and Innovation Center for Marine Science and Technology (CIMST), Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Key Laboratory of Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Climate, Universities of Shandong, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
Recommended Citation:
Wang C.-Y.,Xie S.-P.,Kosaka Y.,et al. Global influence of tropical Pacific variability with implications for global warming slowdown[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(7)