DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0558.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85014580003
论文题名: Reconciling theories for human and natural attribution of recent East Africa drying
作者: Hoell A. ; Hoerling M. ; Eischeid J. ; Quan X.-W. ; Liebmann B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 6 起始页码: 1939
结束页码: 1957
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Atmospheric temperature
; Drought
; Drying
; Global warming
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Rain
; Sensitivity analysis
; Surface waters
; Anthropogenic effects
; Atmospheric model simulations
; Decadal variability
; Multidecadal variability
; Natural variability
; Pacific decadal variabilities
; Radiative forcings
; Sea surface temperatures
; Oceanography
; anthropogenic effect
; atmospheric modeling
; decadal variation
; drought
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; global warming
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea surface temperature
; theoretical study
; East Africa
英文摘要: Two theories for observed East Africa drying trends during March-May 1979-2013 are reconciled. Both hypothesize that variations in tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) caused East Africa drying. The first invokes a mainly human cause resulting from sensitivity to secular warming of Indo-western Pacific SSTs. The second invokes a mainly natural cause resulting from sensitivity to a strong articulation of ENSO-like Pacific decadal variability involving warming of the western Pacific and cooling of the central Pacific. Historical atmospheric model simulations indicate that observed SST variations contributed significantly to the East Africa drying trend during March-May 1979-2013. By contrast, historical coupled model simulations suggest that external radiative forcing alone, including the ocean's response to that forcing, did not contribute significantly to East Africa drying. Recognizing that the observed SST variations involved a commingling of natural and anthropogenic effects, this study diagnosed how East African rainfall sensitivity was conditionally dependent on the interplay of those factors. East African rainfall trends in historical coupled models were intercompared between two composites of ENSO-like decadal variability, one operating in the early twentieth century before appreciable global warming and the other in the early twenty-first century of strong global warming. The authors find the coaction of global warming with ENSO-like decadal variability can significantly enhance 35-yr East Africa drying trends relative to when the natural mode of ocean variability acts alone. A human-induced change via its interplay with an extreme articulation of natural variability may thus have been key to Africa drying; however, these results are speculative owing to differences among two independent suites of coupled model ensembles. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49874
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Physical Sciences Division, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, United States
Recommended Citation:
Hoell A.,Hoerling M.,Eischeid J.,et al. Reconciling theories for human and natural attribution of recent East Africa drying[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(6)