DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84971423521
论文题名: Using causal effect networks to analyze different arctic drivers of midlatitude winter circulation
作者: Kretschmer M. ; Coumou D. ; Donges J.F. ; Runge J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 11 起始页码: 4069
结束页码: 4081
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric movements
; Atmospheric structure
; Ice
; Sea ice
; Sea level
; Snow
; Time delay
; Time series
; Troposphere
; Upper atmosphere
; Arctic Oscillation
; Atmospheric circulation
; Statistical techniques
; Stratosphere-troposphere coupling
; Teleconnections
; Time series analysis
; air-sea interaction
; Arctic Oscillation
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; atmospheric circulation
; Northern Hemisphere
; stratosphere-troposphere interaction
; teleconnection
; time series
; winter
; Arctic Ocean
; Barents Sea
; Kara Sea
英文摘要: In recent years, the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have suffered from severe winters like the extreme 2012/13 winter in the eastern United States. These cold spells were linked to a meandering upper-tropospheric jet stream pattern and a negative Arctic Oscillation index (AO). However, the nature of the drivers behind these circulation patterns remains controversial. Various studies have proposed different mechanisms related to changes in the Arctic, most of them related to a reduction in sea ice concentrations or increasing Eurasian snow cover. Here, a novel type of time series analysis, called causal effect networks (CEN), based on graphical models is introduced to assess causal relationships and their time delays between different processes. The effect of different Arctic actors on winter circulation on weekly to monthly time scales is studied, and robust network patterns are found. Barents and Kara sea ice concentrations are detected to be important external drivers of the midlatitude circulation, influencing winter AO via tropospheric mechanisms and through processes involving the stratosphere. Eurasia snow cover is also detected to have a causal effect on sea level pressure in Asia, but its exact role on AO remains unclear. The CEN approach presented in this study overcomes some difficulties in interpreting correlation analyses, complements model experiments for testing hypotheses involving teleconnections, and can be used to assess their validity. The findings confirm that sea ice concentrations in autumn in the Barents and Kara Seas are an important driver of winter circulation in the midlatitudes. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49902
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Department of Mathematics, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Physics, Humboldt University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Kretschmer M.,Coumou D.,Donges J.F.,et al. Using causal effect networks to analyze different arctic drivers of midlatitude winter circulation[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(11)