DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00831.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84974802655
论文题名: Future changes in convective storm days over the northeastern United States using linear discriminant analysis applied to CMIP5 predictions
作者: Li H. ; Colle B.A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 12 起始页码: 4327
结束页码: 4345
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Discriminant analysis
; Forecasting
; Radar
; Storms
; Climate prediction
; Climate variability
; Convective storms
; General circulation model
; Variability
; Climate models
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; climatology
; convective system
; discriminant analysis
; forecasting method
; meteorology
; prediction
; storm
; United States
英文摘要: Future changes in the frequency of environmental conditions conducive for convective storm days ("CE days") are determined for the northeastern United States (NEUS) during the warm seasons (April-September) of the twenty-first century. Statistical relationships between historical runs of seven models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and radar-classified convective storm days are developed using linear discriminant analysis (LDA), and these relationships are then applied to analyze changes in the convective environment under the high-emissions representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario over the period 2006-99. The 1996-2007 warm seasons are used to train the LDA thresholds using convective precipitation from two reanalysis datasets and radar data, and the 1979-95 and 2008-10 warm seasons are used to verify these thresholds. For the CMIP5 historical period (1979-2005), the frequency of warm season CE days averaged across the CMIP5 models is slightly greater than that derived using reanalysis data, although both methods indicate a slight increasing trend through the historical period. Between 2006 and 2099, warm season CE day frequency is predicted to increase substantially at an average rate of 4-5 days decade-1 (50%-80% increase over the entire period). These changes are mostly attributed to a predicted 30%-40% increase in midlevel precipitable water between the historical period and the last few decades of the twenty-first century. Consistent with previous studies, there is decreasing deep-layer vertical wind shear as a result of a weakening horizontal temperature gradient, but this is outweighed by increases in instability led by the moisture increases. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49917
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States; School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Li H.,Colle B.A.. Future changes in convective storm days over the northeastern United States using linear discriminant analysis applied to CMIP5 predictions[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(12)