DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0828.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84966347076
论文题名: Early-warning signals for the onsets of Greenland interstadials and the younger dryas-preboreal transition
作者: Rypdal M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 11 起始页码: 4047
结束页码: 4056
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Convergence of numerical methods
; Dynamical systems
; Frequency bands
; Glacial geology
; Stability
; Stochastic models
; Stochastic systems
; System stability
; Time measurement
; Characteristic time
; Critical slowing down
; High frequency bands
; High frequency fluctuations
; Ice age
; Paleoclimates
; Temperature fluctuation
; Wavelets
; Climate change
; atmospheric modeling
; atmospheric pressure
; atmospheric structure
; early warning system
; GRIP
; interstitial environment
; paleoclimate
; Pleistocene
; Preboreal
; stochasticity
; wavelet analysis
; Younger Dryas
; Arctic
; Greenland
英文摘要: The climate system approaches a tipping point if the prevailing climate state loses stability, making a transition to a different state possible. A result from the theory of randomly driven dynamical systems is that the reduced stability in the vicinity of a tipping point is accompanied by increasing fluctuation levels and longer correlation times (critical slowing down) and can in principle serve as early-warning signals of an upcoming tipping point. This study demonstrates that the high-frequency band of the δ18O variations in the North Greenland Ice Core Project displays fluctuation levels that increase as one approaches the onset of an interstadial (warm) period. Similar results are found for the locally estimated Hurst exponent for the high-frequency fluctuations, signaling longer correlation times. The observed slowing down is found to be even stronger in the Younger Dryas, suggesting that both the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition and the onsets of the Greenland interstadials are preceded by decreasing stability of the climate state. It is also verified that the temperature fluctuations during the stadial periods can be approximately modeled as a scale-invariant persistent noise, which can be approximated as an aggregation of processes that respond to perturbations on certain characteristic time scales. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that both the onsets of the Greenland interstadials and the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition are caused by tipping points in dynamical processes with characteristic time scales on the order of decades and that the variability of other processes on longer time scales masks the early-warning signatures in the δ18O signal. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49921
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Rypdal M.. Early-warning signals for the onsets of Greenland interstadials and the younger dryas-preboreal transition[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(11)