DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0848.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84971492709
论文题名: Exploring the pullback attractors of a low-order quasigeostrophic ocean model: The deterministic case
作者: Pierini S. ; Ghil M. ; Chekroun M.D.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 11 起始页码: 4185
结束页码: 4202
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Astrophysics
; Climate change
; Dynamical systems
; Nonlinear dynamical systems
; Nonlinear systems
; Probability density function
; Sensitivity analysis
; Trajectories
; Ensembles
; Inter-decadal variability
; Non-linear model
; Ocean model
; Quasi-geostrophic model
; Variability
; Climate models
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; decadal variation
; ensemble forecasting
; gyre
; parameterization
; probability density function
; quasi-geostrophic flow
; time dependent behavior
; weather forecasting
; Pisonia aculeata
英文摘要: A low-order quasigeostrophic double-gyre ocean model is subjected to an aperiodic forcing that mimics time dependence dominated by interdecadal variability. This model is used as a prototype of an unstable and nonlinear dynamical system with time-dependent forcing to explore basic features of climate change in the presence of natural variability. The study relies on the theoretical framework of nonautonomous dynamical systems and of their pullback attractors (PBAs), that is, of the time-dependent invariant sets attracting all trajectories initialized in the remote past. The existence of a global PBA is rigorously demonstrated for this weakly dissipative nonlinear model. Ensemble simulations are carried out and the convergence to PBAs is assessed by computing the probability density function (PDF) of localization of the trajectories. A sensitivity analysis with respect to forcing amplitude shows that the PBAs experience large modifications if the underlying autonomous system is dominated by small-amplitude limit cycles, while less dramatic changes occur in a regime characterized by large-amplitude relaxation oscillations. The dependence of the attracting sets on the choice of the ensemble of initial states is then analyzed. Two types of basins of attraction coexist for certain parameter ranges; they contain chaotic and nonchaotic trajectories, respectively. The statistics of the former does not depend on the initial states whereas the trajectories in the latter converge to small portions of the global PBA. This complex scenario requires separate PDFs for chaotic and nonchaotic trajectories. General implications for climate predictability are finally discussed. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49934
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Universitá di Napoli Parthenope, Napoli, Italy; Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France; University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Pierini S.,Ghil M.,Chekroun M.D.. Exploring the pullback attractors of a low-order quasigeostrophic ocean model: The deterministic case[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(11)