DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0493.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84974777433
论文题名: The influence of atmospheric blocking on extreme winter minimum temperatures in North America
作者: Whan K. ; Zwiers F. ; Sillmann J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 12 起始页码: 4361
结束页码: 4381
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Blocking
; Extreme events
; Geographic location
; North America
; Statistical techniques
; Surface temperatures
; Atmospheric temperature
; atmospheric blocking
; climate modeling
; extreme event
; numerical model
; regional climate
; statistical analysis
; surface temperature
; winter
; British Columbia
; Canada
; Pacific Ocean
; United States
英文摘要: Regional climate models (RCMs) are the primary source of high-resolution climate projections, and it is of crucial importance to evaluate their ability to simulate extreme events under current climate conditions. Many extreme events are influenced by circulation features that occur outside, or on the edges of, RCM domains. Thus, it is of interest to know whether such dynamically controlled aspects of extremes are well represented by RCMs. This study assesses the relationship between upstream blocking and cold temperature extremes over North America in observations, reanalysis products (ERA-Interim and NARR), and RCMs (CanRCM4, CRCM5, HIRHAM5, and RCA4). Generalized extreme value distributions were fitted to winter minimum temperature (TNn) incorporating blocking frequency (BF) as a covariate, which is shown to have a significant influence on TNn. The magnitude of blocking influence in the RCMs is consistent with observations, but the spatial extent varies. CRCM5 and HIRHAM5 reproduce the pattern of influence best compared to observations. CanRCM4 and RCA4 capture the influence of blocking in British Columbia and the northeastern United States, but the extension of influence that is seen in observations and reanalysis into the southern United States is not evident. The difference in the 20-yr return value (20RV) of TNn between high and low BF in the Pacific Ocean indicates that blocking is associated with a decrease of up to 15°C in the 20RV over the majority of the United States and in western Canada. In northern North America the difference in the 20RV is positive as blocking is associated with warmer extreme cold temperatures. The 20RVs are generally simulated well by the RCMs. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49935
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Whan K.,Zwiers F.,Sillmann J.. The influence of atmospheric blocking on extreme winter minimum temperatures in North America[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(12)