globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0437.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84971440726
论文题名:
Statistics of regional surface temperatures after 1900: Long-range versus short-range dependence and significance of warming trends
作者: Løvsletten O.; Rypdal M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期:11
起始页码: 4057
结束页码: 4068
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure ; Atmospheric temperature ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Climatology ; Random processes ; Statistical tests ; Statistics ; Stochastic systems ; Surface properties ; Telecommunication traffic ; Time series ; Auto regressive process ; Global mean surface temperature ; Regional surface temperature ; Short range dependences ; Statistical techniques ; Temperature fluctuation ; Trends ; Variability ; Stochastic models ; climate variation ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; numerical model ; regional climate ; stochasticity ; surface temperature ; time series analysis ; trend analysis ; warming
英文摘要: This paper studies regional climate variability for the time period 1900-2013 using parsimonious stochastic models. Instrumental data records on 5° × 5°, 2° × 2°, and equal-area grids are examined. A long-range dependent (LRD) stochastic process is used as a simplified description of the multitude of response times in the climate system. Fitting a linear trend to the global mean surface temperature (GMST) implies a warming of 0.08 decade-1, which is highly significant under an LRD null hypothesis (p < 10-4). The regional trends are distributed around the global mean trend, while the fluctuation levels increases when going from global to regional scale. The temperature fluctuations of the tropical oceans are observed to be strongly influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and, therefore, more consistent with autoregressive processes of order 1 [AR(1)]. A likelihood-ratio test is used to systematically determine the best null model [AR(1) or LRD]. About 80% of the regional warming trends are found to be significant (with a 5% significance level). © 2016 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49941
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作者单位: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, UiT Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway

Recommended Citation:
Løvsletten O.,Rypdal M.. Statistics of regional surface temperatures after 1900: Long-range versus short-range dependence and significance of warming trends[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(11)
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